Missile Strike in Poland

Hey everyone, just wanted to drop this quick summary/update below for those that don't follow us on other sources. Don't currently have a video planned on this, just wanted to pass a little reasurance as the internet is currently freaking out right now.
------------------------------BREAK------------------------------
For Immediate Release: Ukrainian War Update – Missile Strikes Poland, Killing Two
BLUF: This is a very serious event, which will increase tensions throughout Europe as we wait for NATO’s response. The most serious result of this strike will be the potential for out-of-control escalation of force that could result in a serious conflagration in the coming days.
What we know so far: At approximately 23:17 GMT, at least one missile/rocket struck the small border farming community of Przewodow, Poland, killing two Polish citizens. The strike occurred at approximately the same time as Russia launched a large, multi-front-wide artillery barrage on critical Ukrainian energy infrastructure, which in turn has been a continuation of the conflict in Ukraine. At this time, it is not clear if the missile/rocket strike was due to a mistake (or equipment malfunction), and currently neither NATO nor Russia have responded to the strike. Various NATO and non-NATO members throughout Europe have placed their military forces on high alert in response to this event.
Analyst Comment – As tensions remain high throughout Europe, fears of a global conflict erupting from this event are at an all-time high. Simply put, this scenario, cross-border fires resulting in CIVCAS (civilian casualties) are exactly what NATO (and Russia/Eastern Bloc nations) have been preparing for since the beginning of the Cold War. From a technical standpoint, it is a miracle that this event hasn’t happened until now, as unguided missiles are just that…unguided. This is why unguided missile systems usually have what’s called a high Circular Error Probability. Meaning that, compared to a Precision munition, an unguided projectile has a very large circle that it can land in, which can sometimes be hundreds of meters in diameter (depending on range, munition, weather, etc). Couple this with the potential for mechanical and/or user error, devastating mistakes can easily be made using many of the weapons systems currently employed in Ukraine. However, this itself is an assumption…we cannot even be sure that the strike is Russian in origin at this time. As the weapons systems used by Russia and Ukraine are for the most part identical, we may never find out which nation caused the death of two Polish citizens.
Fear that this incident will spiral out of hand is justified, but we must remember that the most serious factor impacting this event is once again in the information space. In short, BE CAREFUL where you get your information regarding this event (and every event related to the Ukrainian War). As always, this situation is highly dynamic, and almost nothing is confirmed. Propaganda, false-flag attacks, and lack of communication are the most serious catalysts of escalating conflict, and some of the most significant efforts during the Ukrainian War have been made on the information front.
Militarily, Poland is almost certainly preparing to conduct retaliatory strikes on targets chosen from various lists of strategic targets that surely have been prepared since the start of this War. Whether or not Poland will choose to target Russian facilities in Russia, Ukraine, or Belarus is unknown. Additionally, whether or not Poland will choose to act without the rest of NATO is also unknown. Cross-border fires are not an uncommon aspect of warfare…but cross-border fires have historically been used by politicians and senior military officials to drag a nation into war. Observing Poland’s (and NATO’s) response will be a high priority as we move forward, and a strong indicator of how likely further escalation is to occur.
Strategically, no nation in Europe is ready for WW3 right now, despite the posturing and propaganda put forth by all sides. No nation that has ever gone to war has done so from a perspective of being 100% ready for the conflict, but as the situation throughout Europe indicates, there are many serious issues that complicate the potential for war. Russia is facing serious manpower and logistics woes, most other European nations are facing energy crises, and every nation has learned how they have misaligned their military priorities for decades. This, combined with the horrific and costly nature of the War in Ukraine, indicates that it is unlikely that this incident will result in “WW3 kicking off”. However, this does not mean that mistakes cannot be made, and that miscommunication cannot occur. The next few days will be full of tension and uncertainty as we observe the reactions from NATO (and other non-member states). Virtue signaling and warmongering in the private sector will continue on all sides, and the war in the information space will continue as before. Conversely, the historical precedence this strike (if it indeed was Russian in origin) sets is not positive, and likely will have very serious implications for Europe as we move into what is certain to be a rough winter throughout the continent.